Horse Properties For Sale In Azle Tx
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001 probability have been happening. I can believe it. In evaluating our model on past and current data, we've been looking a lot at national electoral college and popular vote predictions but not so much on tail probabilities for individual states. When tweaking the model a few months ago, we tried some longer-tailed distributions but they didn't do much to the forecast of who would win nationally or by state, so we didn't pursue it. But in retrospect, our evaluations were too focused on winners and losers, and we weren't fully making use of information about the continuous vote outcomes. I don't think we have any plans to change the model before the election, but it makes sense for us to go back and look more carefully at these extreme events. We wouldn't go so far as put Trump winning California within "the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible, " but some slightly wider tails would make sense.